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EXCELLENCE SCHOOL
Think Like a Scientist: Studies, Numbers and Headlines
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Tell strong evidence from weak: study designs, correlations, margins of error, p-values, replication, publication bias, press-release hype and your own blind spots.
2h 59m5 constellations
01Rank evidence and explain why randomized trials beat observation for causes
02Read margins of error, effect sizes and p-values correctly
03Spot replication problems, missing studies and retractions
04Follow headlines back to studies, and judge claims with a calibrated verdict
Every lesson of Think Like a Scientist: Studies, Numbers and Headlines
15 lessons in 5 levels, about 3 hours. Level 1 is free.
Level 1How Science Knows ThingsFree · 3 lessons
- The ladder of evidenceRank kinds of evidence, and see why a randomized trial overturned decades of observational studies.12 min
- Correlation, and three other explanationsBefore accepting “X causes Y”, check for a third factor, reverse causation and chance.12 min
- Checkpoint: five questions for any claimQuestion a surprising claim calmly with five checks.12 min
Level 2Numbers in StudiesMembership · 3 lessons
- How sure is a survey?Calculate a survey's margin of error and see how sample size changes it.12 min
- What a p-value is notRead p-values correctly and ask for effect sizes instead.12 min
- Checkpoint: how many findings are false?Estimate what share of “significant” findings are true from power, the threshold and how likely the ideas were.13 min
Level 3When Science Gets It WrongMembership · 3 lessons
- The replication testUnderstand what large replication projects found, and what makes a finding more trustworthy.12 min
- The file drawerSee how unpublished null results make the published record look more positive than reality.12 min
- Checkpoint: peer review isn't a guaranteeCheck a study's status before relying on it, including retractions.11 min
Level 4Read the Headline, Then the StudyMembership · 3 lessons
- Where exaggeration startsSee where exaggerated science news comes from, and how to read past it.12 min
- In mice, in cells, in peoplePlace a result on the path from cells and animals to people, and weigh it accordingly.11 min
- Checkpoint: before you shareCheck a claim before sharing it, and respond to a shared claim without a fight.12 min
Level 5Scientific Habits for LifeMembership · 3 lessons
- The ones you don't seeSpot survivorship bias when only the successes are visible.11 min
- Consider the oppositeUse the “consider the opposite” strategy to reduce bias when judging evidence.11 min
- Capstone: judge a real claimTake one real claim through every tool in the path and reach a calibrated verdict.14 min
AFTER THE CORE