Excellence LifeAT THE SUMMIT, YOU WILL BE ABLE TO
EXCELLENCE LIFE
Make Better Decisions
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Decide with clearer eyes: wider options, honest odds, fewer regrets, at work and in life.
3h 21m6 constellations
01Judge decisions by their quality, not their luck
02Estimate with honest, calibrated confidence
03Compare options with clear criteria and probabilities
04Know when to commit, when to reverse and when to quit
Every lesson of Make Better Decisions
18 lessons in 6 levels, about 3 hours. Level 1 is free.
Level 1Why Good People Make Bad DecisionsFree · 3 lessons
- Don't judge a decision by its outcomeSeparate the quality of a decision from the luck of its outcome.10 min
- “Whether or not” is a trapWiden yes/no decisions into real choices between several options.11 min
- Checkpoint: start a decision journalRecord important decisions before you know the outcome, so you can learn honestly later.10 min
Level 2See the Situation ClearlyMembership · 3 lessons
- The outside viewStart estimates from base rates (how similar cases usually go) before adjusting for your case.11 min
- How sure are you, really?Measure your overconfidence with confidence ranges, and widen them until they're honest.12 min
- Checkpoint: look for what would prove you wrongCounter confirmation bias by deliberately seeking evidence against your favorite option.11 min
Level 3Choose Between OptionsMembership · 3 lessons
- Weigh what mattersCompare options with weighted criteria chosen before you score them.12 min
- Too many choices?Know what the evidence on choice overload really says, and when narrowing options helps.11 min
- Checkpoint: get some distanceUse distance tools (10/10/10 and advice to a friend) and know what “sleeping on it” can and can't do.11 min
Level 4Think in ProbabilitiesMembership · 3 lessons
- Say it with a numberReplace vague words like “probably” with probabilities you can check and improve.10 min
- Expected value, for everyday betsWeigh options by probability and payoff, and know when expected value isn't enough.12 min
- Checkpoint: the premortemRun a premortem to surface risks before a decision, not after it fails.12 min
Level 5Know When to QuitMembership · 3 lessons
- The sunk-cost trapDecide based on future costs and benefits, not on what you've already spent.10 min
- Kill criteriaDecide in advance the signals that will make you stop, before you're emotionally invested.11 min
- Checkpoint: one-way and two-way doorsMove fast on reversible decisions and slow down on irreversible ones.10 min
Level 6Your Decision SystemMembership · 3 lessons
- Better decisions in groupsCollect independent judgments before discussion so groups don't just follow the first voice.11 min
- Review your decisionsReview your decision journal honestly to find patterns in your judgment.11 min
- Capstone: your decision checklistCombine every tool into a short checklist for your important decisions.15 min
AFTER THE CORE